Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 19.224794 21.903369 24.783445 28.105987 31.828676 35.866415 40.572748
2025-02-02 15.485178 19.179228 23.452354 28.742388 35.095907 42.460556 51.622158
2025-02-09 13.224105 17.289229 22.218004 28.599913 36.607085 46.280070 58.805324
2025-02-16 11.369869 15.608024 20.967939 28.190891 37.609293 49.405895 65.222097
2025-02-23 10.153171 14.539274 20.291687 28.313142 39.120831 53.076696 72.342155
2025-03-02 9.227316 13.733058 19.840954 28.625222 40.813576 56.986307 79.897871
2025-03-09 8.374466 12.921937 19.279302 28.687831 42.100602 60.347257 86.814795
2025-03-16 7.543706 12.049582 18.536746 28.401716 42.829135 62.920933 92.715634
2025-03-23 6.976679 11.505882 18.205659 28.650776 44.286736 66.529076 100.177822
2025-03-30 6.639296 11.275809 18.306528 29.519123 46.662463 71.521485 109.810362
2025-04-06 6.068590 10.622378 17.705317 29.265593 47.323828 74.022443 115.895653
2025-04-13 5.308965 9.591718 16.432393 27.869375 46.136545 73.689991 117.715245
2025-04-20 5.053660 9.388395 16.475236 28.575483 48.278988 78.518294 127.616709
2025-04-27 4.822408 9.205806 16.536509 29.310800 50.503483 83.574845 138.104405
2025-05-04 4.447454 8.734091 16.073771 29.136170 51.227289 86.295555 145.035775
2025-05-11 4.070080 8.222687 15.501671 28.729893 51.530401 88.339765 150.957329
2025-05-18 3.813879 7.911112 15.251199 28.851020 52.705751 91.817349 159.299888
2025-05-25 3.609597 7.678961 15.122317 29.169574 54.221066 95.899366 168.775927
2025-06-01 3.385655 7.388074 14.863382 29.232900 55.285998 99.264332 177.185431
2025-06-08 3.133334 7.017579 14.428168 28.941965 55.700325 101.535378 183.833180
2025-06-15 2.971318 6.815768 14.294932 29.195287 57.087795 105.504930 193.492041
2025-06-22 2.896025 6.787650 14.492406 30.078618 59.654169 111.603846 207.025489
2025-06-29 2.695019 6.474239 14.107690 29.820717 60.100284 114.003624 214.216695